“The current weakness in the markets is not a reflection of poor fundamentals. Rather, it’s caused by a confluence of idiosyncratic shocks,” said BofA Merrill’s Candace Browning.
Tracking the Activities of Global Asset Managers in Latin America
“The current weakness in the markets is not a reflection of poor fundamentals. Rather, it’s caused by a confluence of idiosyncratic shocks,” said BofA Merrill’s Candace Browning.
“If investors choose asset classes, sectors and stocks carefully, they can meaningfully outperform the market," says BofA Merrill's Candace Browning. "2017 could be the year of the active investor.”
“Investors are not yet ‘max bearish.' They have yet to accept that we are already well into a normal, cyclical recession/bear market,” says BofA Merrill Lynch's Michael Hartnett.
With growth and inflation expectations notably higher after new US payroll data, investors have cut cash holdings and increased exposure to equities, real estate and alternative investments. Confidence in the global economy also rebounded, up 22 percentage points from October.
"Contrarians will be noting the aggressive underweight positioning in emerging markets,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
“Rising risk aversion and stretched cash levels provide a contrarian buy signal for risk assets in Q3,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
The proportion of global investors saying equity markets are overvalued has reached its highest level since 2000. A net 25 percent of respondents to the global survey say that global equities are currently overvalued, up from a net 23% in March and a net 8% in February. This is still, however, short of the record-high level of a net 42% in 1999.
Europe’s profit outlook is at its best since 2009, according to panel members. A net 81% of regional specialists see the economy strengthening in the next year. "It is as if there is not a single bear left," said Manish Kabra (photo), European equity and quantitative strategist.
Strong fundamentals and healthy growth in the US economy support a case for investor optimism and opportunism. However, in the lower-return, higher-volatility environment projected ahead, selective allocation and defensive portfolio moves will be crucial for performance.
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